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Are Real Estate Sales Really Up in Miami?
If you read the papers, listens to the news, or talk to friends, neighbors and acquaintences about the real estate market, you could be very confused as to what is “real” about it.
- Foreclosures and short sales are still high.
- Unemployment is still high and actually rose more vs. high and dropping.
- Inventory is still high.
Yet, week after week, our EWM office in Coral Gables is selling more than we are listing. This week alone, we had over $28,000,000 (yes, that is million and it was closer to $29) in sales and leases, the majority in sales. We had 29 sales vs 8 sale listings. What is even more amazing about the sales in our office this week:
- 11 of them (38%) were over $500,000 vs 9 that were under$300,000, which is where most of the market has been this year;
- 7 of them were over $1,000,000 so the high end market is starting to move.
What is especially important in these numbers is that the higher end sales are not relying on the first time home buyers tax credit, since they don’t qualify, and they are buying anyway. This leads me to believe that the real estate market is starting to stabilize, especially in certain areas.
Bloomberg’s Foreclosure Index Up 3.8% From One Year Ago
Source: Bloomberg
Are Recent Improvements in Home Sales and Median Prices Here to Stay?
Both on a national and local South Florida level, home sales have been improving and in some areas median prices have actually been increasing. Although we have been seeing a trend in increasing sales and decreasing inventories in Miami-Dade County, Moody’s Investor Services estimates there will be an additional 8% decrease in home prices in 2010 due to an increased number of foreclosures, short-sales, and deeds in lieu of foreclosure sales that will be coming on the market. Moody’s estimates are based on loans that are currently in some form of modification process but that will not be eligible for permanent modification.
Are You Eligible For a Loan Modification?
Home Foreclosures Expected to Continue in 2010
The good news is that sales on existing homes, both single family and condos, continue to increase and inventories are decreasing in Miami-Dade county.
The bad news is in the foreclosure numbers for 2009. The numbers include all properties that are in some stage of the foreclosure process.
- Palm Beach County – 30,870
- Broward County – 69,633
- Miami-Dade County – 72,391
- Monroe County – 1,275
Since the unemployment rate is so high in Florida, foreclosures are expected to continue to add to inventories on the market in 2010. Miami-Dade’s new on-line foreclosure program and the government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program should help keep the foreclosure rate lower than 2009’s.
7 Reasons to Buy Real Estate Now
Okay, you have been hearing that now is the time to buy a home, but maybe you are still unsure of why, when there is so much inventory on the market and so much insecurity in the economy. Here are 7 specific reasons:
- Home Buyer Tax Credits – The Government is paying first-time home buyers and move-up buyers money to purchase a home. It can be a single family home or a condo, it just has to be your primary residence.
- Interest rates are still at historic lows, currently around 5.25% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.
- Lenders are moving their inventories of foreclosures and are becoming more likely to agree to short sales.
- Interest rates will increase due to the huge amount of government debt.
- The median price of a single family home is currently $185,000, down from a median price of $400,000 at the peak of the real estate boom.
- There is currently a 10 month supply of single family homes in Miami-Dade County, down from a 24 month supply at the end of 2008. A stable market has an inventory of 6-9 months.
- There has been a 29% increase in sales since last year.
- Whether single family or condo, under $300,000 or over $1,000,000, the market trend has been a steady decrease in inventory since at least October of 2008.
Now, you may be a naysayer and agree with someone who stated that the price of real estate is going to go down another 33%, but those of us that are active in the market are not seeing it. We are seeing inventories decreasing, foreigners and investors coming back into the market that they had shied away from during the boom years and buyers getting some very good buys. Miami is on sale and many properties are selling for less than what it would cost to build the exact same structure on the same lot. Are you going to be someone who says, “Shoulda, woulda, coulda” or someone who feels lucky that they got into the market when they could?
Miami Foreclosures Now On-line
In an attempt to work through the more than 110,000 open foreclosures and the 7,000 new ones that are filed each month, Miami-Dade County has put them on-line. Registration is free and allows you access to the county’s foreclosures. If you want to bid, you will be required to put down a refundable 5% deposit.
Icon Brickell To Be Turned Over To Lenders
Icon Brickell, the three-tower 1800-unit complex with views of the Miami River and gorgeous grounds is being turned over to the developer’s lenders in a friendly foreclosure. Only two of the three towers have been built.
Happy Holidays from Citigroup
Citigroup announced that it will suspend foreclosures for the next 30 days in order to work on long-term alternatives to foreclosure. This will be happy news to an estimated 4,000 borrowers.
Foreclosure Numbers Show We Still Have A Long Road to Recovery
Although national foreclosures in November were down 8% from October, they are still up 18% over last November. With Florida in second place behind Nevada in having the highest number of foreclosures, we are still a long way off from being able to say the market has recovered. Recent decreases in inventory and increases in sales are all good signs that we have turned the corner, but a recent article in Forbes highlights some of the issues we still face and lists the 10 markets where they believe the market is turning around. Not surprisingly, none are in Florida.
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