According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure activity in South Florida will continue at high levels through 2010 and there will be a glut of inventory through 2013.
In the current market, 60% of active buyers interested in distressed propertys and 40-50% of sales involve a foreclosure or shortsale.
|
The recent decision by some banks to freeze their foreclosure process while they investigate their procedures for handling foreclosures has a mixed effect on South Florida’s real estate market. While it may be a good thing for distressed owners who really want to keep their homes, it is probably not a great thing for current buyers and the overall real estate market. The reality of too many homeowners who bought at the height of the market, owners who are currently underwater, unemployed, or simply bought way more house than they could afford when banks were in a lending frenzy, means the majority of homes in foreclosure now probably will still be there at the end of the investigation. Yes, there are stories of homes foreclosed improperly, including that of an owner who had paid cash on the house, and many of the banks and their foreclosure attorneys have become mills that may have filed paperwork incorrectly or downright fraudulently (this is the fraud capital of the United States, unfortunately). These procedures should be investigated, stopped and punished. In the meantime, buyers who are currently under contract are in limbo and the real estate market, which has been slogging through high inventories, may slow since approximately 40% of the home sales in South Florida are made up of bank-owned properties.
The good news is that sales on existing homes, both single family and condos, continue to increase and inventories are decreasing in Miami-Dade county.
The bad news is in the foreclosure numbers for 2009. The numbers include all properties that are in some stage of the foreclosure process.
Since the unemployment rate is so high in Florida, foreclosures are expected to continue to add to inventories on the market in 2010. Miami-Dade’s new on-line foreclosure program and the government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program should help keep the foreclosure rate lower than 2009’s.
Although the number of homes in foreclosure decreased in October from the same time last year, the overall number of foreclosures are still high and some experts think it will rise. According to RealtyTrac, there were 7, 741 foreclosures in Miami Dade as of October. Most of the first round of foreclosures were sub-prime and adjustable-rate mortgages that became unaffordable once interest rates reset. The potential for another round of foreclosures is due to the large amount of negative equity many people currently have in their homes and the high unemployment rate, 11.3%, in Miami-Dade County.
This new round of foreclosures will keep real estate prices low, and may push them lower, unless the current sales trend continues and a balance is reached where inventories are stable at a 6 – 9 month supply. The recently extended and expanded First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit, continued low interest rates and real estate prices that have retrenched, should help keep sales moving and inventories decreasing. The graph below is for single-family homes and condo sales for Miami-Dade County. Some areas within the county are already at a 6-9 month supply level.
