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Miami Real Estate – Shadow Inventory
Shadow inventory is basically the number of properties that are projected to hit the market due to distressed owners, those who are behind 90 days or more on their mortgage, or because they will be or already have been taken back by the bank. There has been a lot of speculation lately about how this background inventory will affect the housing recovery, with many experts saying it will significantly delay it.
A CNNMoney.com article on Shadow Inventory states: “Of the 20 separate markets S&P analyzed, Miami was the only market of the 20 that S&P analyzed where shadow inventory did not did expand during the first three quarters of 2010.”
What does this mean for buyers? Record high affordability and a wide selection of properties to choose from.
For sellers, it means a continued suppression of prices, with prices either dropping further or bouncing along the bottom for a while. If you were thinking of selling your home within the next year or two, you may want to put it on the market now. Or, if you have equity in your home and have entertained the idea of owning investment property, turn it into a rental and buy your move-up, downsizing, or retirement home at the lowest prices we have seen in a long time.
Housing Reports Expected Next Week
While the local real estate news has been giving us a snapshot of what has been happening in Miami’s real estate housing market, several housing reports are due out next week, which will give us a national picture of how the housing recovery is fairing.
- Tuesday - S&P Case Shiller home price index: this index tracks changes in the value of residential real estate at both a national level as well as in 20 metropolitan regions (Miami is one them). Although it is calculated monthly and is released on the last Tuesday of every month, it is published with a two month lag. Tuesday’s report will include values through December 2010.
- Wednesday – new home sales : this report is based on a survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that starts with the number of building permits authorized for single family homes .
- Thursday – pending home sales : this index is prepared by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Because this report looks a homes that are currently under contract, it gives a good picture of where the housing market is headed in the next couple of months. Although many of the pending sales fall through due to a variety of reasons (buyer’s don’t qualify or they get impatient waiting for a bank to approve a short sale are the main reasons in today’s market), many of the sales will close thereby absorbing inventory.
As of today, pending home sales in Coral Gables currently stand at 72 (24 since 1/1/11) versus an inventory of 410 active listings (45 new listings since 1/1/11).
Pinecrest pending home sales are 30 (7 since 1/1/11) and active homes for sale are 196 (17 added since 1/1/11).
Miami Real Estate – Thinking of Selling, Now is the Time. Thinking of Buying? Now is the time.?!
How can it be both the right time to sell and the right time to buy? Usually, if it is a seller’s market, prices are high and inventory is low. If it is a buyer’s market, it is the other way around. We currently have enough overall inventory of single family and condos in South Florida to make it a buyers market so, if you are a seller, you may think of holding off until the inventory decreases. If you have the holding power, you are right. If you need to sell, but were thinking of holding off for the Spring, read Steve Harney’s blog, Oswald Acted Alone and We Did Land on the Moon.
If you are a buyer and read the blog, you will be tempted to hold off, figuring prices will fall further and you could get a better deal. The difference is that with a home buyer, unless you are purchasing with cash, the cost of the home is often more important than the price. Another great Harney blog, 3 Questions You Must Answer Before Buying a Home, can help you determine if you would be better off waiting until the end of 2011 or purchasing now.
Remember, real estate is hyper-local and your specifications for a home or investment property, may be completely different from what is going on in a city, county, state or nationally. Some areas experienced less price decreases, short sales, and foreclosures than others.
FHA Loans – Minimum Credit Scores Reduced
- Credit score 500 – 579 allowed with maximum 90% LTV
- Credit score 580 – 599 allowed with maximum 95% LTV
- Credit score 600 – and higher allowed with maximum 96.5% LTV
Miami Real Estate – New Year Update
The inventory for single family homes in Miami-Dade County has inched up in the first few weeks of 2011. There were 971 single family homes that closed in the month of December, but 723 new listings have increased our inventory from 7591 at the end of December to 8314 as of today.
This increase is not unexpected as foreclosures were put on hold while being investigated, and many homeowners don’t want to deal with showing their home during the holidays.
Miami Real Estate – 2010 Snapshot
For single family homes as of December 2010:
- Median Price $172,000 vs $400,000 peak in May of 2007
- 8156 single family homes listed on the MLS vs a peak inventory of 17,070 in July of 2008
- Currently there is a 10 month supply. A 6-9 month supply is a stable market, so we are getting closer.
For condos as of December 2010:December 2010
- Median Price $101,000 vs $215,000 peak in January of 2008
- 15,116 condos listed on MLS vs 24,905 at peak in May of 2008
- Currently there is a 12 month supply, so we still have a ways to go to stabilize the condo market.
Miami Real Estate Foreclosures: They Are Still Coming On The Market
Even though several large banks froze their foreclosure process in September, there are still plenty of foreclosures coming on the market in Miami.
There are currently 827 single family homes that are listed as REO on the MLS. 423 of them were listed since October 1.
There are 1116 condos listed as REO. 640 of those have been added since October 1.
Florida Real Estate: No Cities Ranked Least Affordable in Latest CNN Ranking
CNN came out with their most recent ranking of most (and least) affordable cities to buy a home. The good news is that no city in Florida made the least affordable list. The bad news is that no city in Florida made the most affordable either.
Miami Real Estate – Will the Miami Heat Lead to an Increase in Sales?
Okay, so the Miami Heat have won two in a row after their disappointing loss in Boston. With so much fanfare around the team, condos in the immediate area have decided to latch on to the Heat as a way to increase sales in buildings that are currently mostly occupied by renters. Other than the Heat, these buildings have a lot to offer location wise. Although there is still infrastructure in the immediate area missing (shopping and restaurants) outside of Bayside Marketplace, there is a lot the area has to offer. It is a quick drive to South Beach, located across from the future Museum Park and a stroll under I-395 to the Arsht Center for Perfoming Arts. So are you enough of a Heat fan to be compelled to buy in one of these new buildings?
Pinecrest, FL Real Estate – Short Sales Currently Available
There are currently 16 short sales, single family homes, listed on the MLS in Pinecrest. They range in price from $2.5 million down to $349,000.
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